Heat pump sales continue to grow, even as overall HVAC equipment shipments decline. In our latest data story, we explore what happened in 2025, analyzing market trends for shipments of space heating, water heating, and cooling appliances. You can learn more about the data in the Appliance Shipments Dashboard on Buildings Hub.
The rise in heat pump sales can be attributed to the following factors. First, heat pumps are steadily gaining market share. Shipments for space heaters have dropped since October 2025. Heat pumps, on the other hand, are continuing to grow as a percentage of space heating shipments. Heat pump shipments rose from 53 percent in 2022 to 57 percent in 2024. From January to September 2025, the share of heat pump shipments was 53 percent. It is important to note that there is a three-month reporting lag from the Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), so these numbers could potentially change over the next few months.
Affordability is also a key concern for homeowners. With rising energy costs, homeowners are looking for more efficient technologies. Heat pumps are more efficient than their gas counterparts, offering homeowners energy cost savings and a reduced carbon footprint.
Lastly, states are actively advancing their heat pump programs. In light of recent federal policy shifts, including the expiration of clean energy tax credits under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, states are exploring alternative funding routes to support heat pump adoption and installation. Here are some key examples of state heat pump programs and incentives:
Colorado: The Denver Regional Council of Governments (DRCOG) is using a $200 million federal grant to fund the Power Ahead Colorado program, which will expand access to electric heat pumps and energy efficiency upgrades for low-income residents. According to reporting from Canary Media, “Power Ahead Colorado will provide free energy-efficiency and heat-pump retrofits to about 2,000 low-income households, offer personalized help from on-call energy advisers, issue $40 million in rebates for home energy upgrades, and train an estimated 4,800 heat-pump installers.”
Oregon: The Oregon Heat Pump Purchase Program provides $2,000 incentives for the installation of heat pumps in owner-occupied homes, rental homes, and homes under construction. Incentives are issued to approved program contractors, who then pass the savings on to the customer.
Maryland: The Maryland Energy Administration (MEA) launched the Maryland Ground Source Heat Pump Advantage Pilot Program to incentivize the installation of GSHP systems at scale in residential new construction developments. There is $2 million available for the program for Fiscal Year 2026, and applications are open until March 15, 2026.
To see a full list of state heat pump programs and incentives, check out the Spotlight States dashboard.
